Core Maths – EVolution of vehicle sales

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Explore the infographic – what can be worked out from this information and what questions does it raise?
  • Look at trends in vehicle registrations
  • Look at proportions of types of newly registered vehicles over time – why has the percentage of petrol cars being registered increased from 2015 to 2020?
  • Do some calculations to show that the number of petrol cars being registered has decreased from 2015 to 2020.
  • Reflect upon the implications for misleading representations of data
  • Consider the implications of the ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 – what affect will this ban have on the proportions of car types being registered?
  • What questions does the increase in electric vehicles raise?

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Calculating percentages
  • Exploring proportions of quantities over time
  • Making conjectures about future proportions given available data
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

Key Stage 3 – EVolution of vehicle sales

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Explore the infographic – what can be worked out from this information and what questions does it raise?
  • Look at trends in vehicle registrations
  • Look at proportions of types of newly registered vehicles over time – why has the percentage of petrol cars being registered increased from 2015 to 2020?
  • Do some calculations to show that the number of petrol cars being registered has decreased from 2015 to 2020.
  • Reflect upon the implications for misleading representations of data
  • Consider the implications of the ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 – what affect will this ban have on the proportions of car types being registered?
  •  What questions does the increase in electric vehicles raise?

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Calculating percentages
  • Exploring proportions of quantities over time
  • Making conjectures about future proportions given available data
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

Core Maths – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

Key Stage 3 – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

IPCC 2021 – Comparing Arctic and Global temperatures – using Excel

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years1.

You are going to test this statement to see if it is true.

Resources

Arctic and global temperatures data spreadsheet

Tutorial: Using Formula in Excel

Tutorial: Creating Line Graphs in Excel

temperature data
  1. Contrast the results of your averages and the range for global air temperatures and those in the Arctic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
  2. Using the Change over time value in your table consider oif the statement “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years” is true.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
climate change blank graph
  1. Complete the graph above which shows data on Global and Arctic temperature change from 1900 to 2020;
    • Add a title to the graph
    • Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Global data
    • Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Arctic data
    • Try to predict the future! Continue your line of best fit for both Global and Arctic lines on until 2100. To do so follow the recent tend and try to project that into the future.
    • What could change the future? Think about government policies relating to climate change and the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Place the following information into a logical sequence to explain why the Arctic is warming faster that the global average:

Sources

  1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.3461. Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
  2. Ecochard, K., 2021. NASA – What’s causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?. [online] Nasa.gov. Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html Accessed 29 November 2021.
  3. The annual mean global and Arctic  temperature time series are provided by Dr. Muyin Wang. Values are the weighted average of all the non-missing, grid-box anomalies plus the absolute temperature. They are based on the monthly  global gridded data (5×5 grid box ) and the absolute temperature,   that has been developed by the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Angliaand NCAS) jointly with the Hadley Centre (UK Met Office).
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

IPCC 2021 – Comparing Arctic and Global temperatures

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years1.

You are going to test this statement to see if it is true.

temperature data
  1. Contrast the results of your averages and the range for global air temperatures and those in the Arctic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
  2. Using the Change over time value in your table consider oif the statement “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years” is true.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
climate change blank graph
  1. Complete the graph above which shows data on Global and Arctic temperature change from 1900 to 2020;
    • Add a title to the graph
    • Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Global data
    • Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Arctic data
    • Try to predict the future! Continue your line of best fit for both Global and Arctic lines on until 2100. To do so follow the recent tend and try to project that into the future.
    • What could change the future? Think about government policies relating to climate change and the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Place the following information into a logical sequence to explain why the Arctic is warming faster that the global average:

Sources

  1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.3461. Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
  2. Ecochard, K., 2021. NASA – What’s causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?. [online] Nasa.gov. Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html Accessed 29 November 2021.
  3. The annual mean global and Arctic  temperature time series are provided by Dr. Muyin Wang. Values are the weighted average of all the non-missing, grid-box anomalies plus the absolute temperature. They are based on the monthly  global gridded data (5×5 grid box ) and the absolute temperature,   that has been developed by the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Angliaand NCAS) jointly with the Hadley Centre (UK Met Office).
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

IPCC 2021 – Impacts of Polar Climate Change

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According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019 (about 40% in September and about 10% in March). There has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 due to regionally opposing trends and large internal variability. Human influence very likely contributed to the decrease in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since 1950. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet over the past two decades, but there is only limited evidence, with medium agreement, of human influence on the Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.”1

The Impacts of climate change in Polar regions

Read page 2 of the polar regions fact sheet from the IPCC2.

Produce a spider diagram of all the suggested impacts that are predicted to occur in the Arctic and the Antarctic. Around those impacts suggest some of the negative consequences for humankind.

spider diagram polar climate change
impacts of polar climate change

Sources

  1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.10. Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
  2. IPCC.ch. 2021. Regional fact sheet – Polar Regions. [online] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Polar_regions.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2021].

IPCC 2021 – Changing Polar Climate

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According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019 (about 40% in September and about 10% in March). There has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 due to regionally opposing trends and large internal variability. Human influence very likely contributed to the decrease in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since 1950. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet over the past two decades, but there is only limited evidence, with medium agreement, of human influence on the Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.”1

NASA https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/ice-min-approach.html

The Arctic is largely sea ice with some parts of countries intruding

Sea ice typically covers about 14 to 16 million km2 in late winter in the Arctic

Antarctica

https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa-knows/what-is-antarctica-k4.html

Antarctica is a CONTINENT with land mass under the ice, mountains, and volcanoes.

Antarctica is 14 million km2 PLUS 17 to 20 million km2 of sea ice in the Antarctic Southern Ocean in winter.

polar regional changes
  1. Using your knowledge of global warming explain why the four changes described above have occurred.
table - regional changes reasons

*Losing mass – this means that more ice melts than is gained via snowfall in a given year.

  1. Change two above suggests that there will be more precipitation (snowfall and rainfall) in Arctic and Antarctic regions. Complete the futures exercise below to consider what this change could mean for those regions.
    • What possible futures are there for the Arctic and Antarctic with increased precipitation?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
    • What probable futures are there for the Arctic and Antarctic with increased precipitation?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
    • What preferable futures exist for these regions? Here you might want to consider the key role these regions play in regulating our global climate.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Changes to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet.

The graphic below shows Greenland Ice Sheet cumulative mass changes in gigatonnes (recently observed and projected by models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) and equivalent sea level change (in metres). Maps show recent elevation changes (metres/year).

      • SSP1-2.6: Global CO2 emissions are cut severely, but not as fast, reaching net-zero after 2050. Temperatures stabilize around 1.8°C higher by the end of the century.
      • SSP5-8.5: Current CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050. The global economy grows quickly, but this growth is fuelled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4°C higher.
IPCC ice mass and sea level change
Source: IPCC2
  1. Using the graphs on ice mass change complete the table below.

SIMPLE TABLE

A gigaton is a billion tonnes. It is roughly equivalent to the mass all of the living mammals other than humans on earth.

  1. Which of the two areas, Greenland or Antarctica, will be most affected by climate change in 2100? Use data from the two graphs and maps to justify your view.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Projected climate changes in the Polar regions

Look carefully at the graphic below, it shows projected changes in the future (SSP5-8.5 scenario) in mean annual temperature and total precipitation at 2°C global warming compared to 1850–1900 for the Arctic (left) and Antarctic (right).

Answer the questions below:

projected polar climate change

Temperature

  1. What is the projected change for Greenland (G)?
  2. What is the projected change for Lapland (L)?
  3. What is the projected change for Siberia (S)?
  4. Which parts of the Arctic will suffer the most from temperature changes under the IPCC’s most extreme climate change scenario?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
  5. What is the projected temperature change for the Antarctic Peninsula (P)?                                                                                                                                                            
  6. What is the projected temperature change at Vostok (V)?                                                                                                                                                            

Precipitation

  1. What is the projected change for Greenland?
  2. What is the projected change for Lapland?
  3. What is the projected change for Siberia?
  4. Which parts of the Arctic will suffer the most from precipitation changes under the IPCC’s most extreme climate change scenario?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  5. What is the projected precipitation change for the Antarctic peninsula?                                                                                                                                                            
  6. What is the projected precipitation change at Vostok?                                                                                                      
  7. Which areas are likely to suffer the most change, the oceans or the land masses?                                                                                                                                                            
  8. Conduct research online, why is it significant for ice melting that the oceans warm? (e.g. https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/why-are-glaciers-and-sea-ice-melting)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Extension

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) – run the simulation at this website https://sealevel.nasa.gov/vesl/web/sea-level/slr-antarctica/.
Describe the changes that take place to try to explain them.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

sea level change

Sources

  • IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.10. Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
  • ch. 2021. Regional fact sheet – Polar Regions. [online] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Polar_regions.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2021].

IPCC 2021 – Evidence for Past Climate Change

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years, and concentrations of CH4 and N2O were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years. Since 1750, increases in CO2 (47%) and CH4 (156%) concentrations far exceed, and increases in N2O (23%) are similar to, the natural multi-millennial changes between glacial and interglacial periods over at least the past 800,000 years.”1

IPCC AR6 data sources

Source:IPCC1

To gather information about the climate scientists need to use a wide range of sources. As can be seen on the graphic opposite, from 1800 onwards scientists can rely upon observations collected by various instruments. However to really understand climate change we need to examine longer term patterns going back thousands two hundreds of thousands of years. The evidence that we have for these can be taken for various sources as can be seen on graph B showing paleoclimatic sources of evidence. Paleoclimate is just a way of saying climate from the geological past.

Task:

Select one of the sources of instrumental observations and one of the paleoclimatic evidence and conduct some research into it.

Complete the tables to evaluate the methods of showing climate change.

Instrumental Evidence

instrumental evidence table

Paleoclimate Evidence

Sources
  1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P10. Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
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IPCC 2021 – The Evidence for Climate Change

climate stripes

Climate stripes Image source: Show your stripes2

The text below is simplified from FAQ3.1 of the IPCC’s 2021 WG1 report1.

How do we Know Humans are Responsible for Climate Change?

The dominant role of humans in driving recent climate change is clear. This conclusion is based on a synthesis (mixture) of information from multiple lines of evidence, including direct observations of recent changes in Earth’s climate; analyses of tree rings, ice cores, and other long-term records documenting how the climate has changed in the past; and computer simulations based on the fundamental physics that govern the climate system.

Climate is influenced by a range of factors

There are two main natural drivers of variations in climate on timescales of decades to centuries.

  1. The first is variations in the Sun’s activity, which alter the amount of incoming energy from the sun.
  2. The second is large volcanic eruptions, which increase the number of small particles (aerosols) in the upper atmosphere that reflect sunlight and cool the surface—an effect that can last for several years.

The main human drivers of climate change are increases in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and of aerosols from burning fossil fuels, land use change (e.g. deforestation) and other sources. The greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation (heat) near the surface, warming the climate. Aerosols, like those produced naturally by volcanoes, on average cool the climate by increasing the reflection of sunlight.

Evidence for human activity causing recent change.

Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that human drivers are the main cause of recent climate change. The current rates of increase of the concentration of the major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) are unprecedented over at least the last 800,000 years.

Climate models

The basic physics underlying the warming effect of greenhouse gases on the climate has been understood for more than a century, and our current understanding has been used to develop the latest generation climate models.

They include a representation of the ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, land and vegetation and the main processes important in driving climate and climate change.

IPCC climate change graphs FAQ3.1

Source:IPCC3

Results consistently show that such climate models can only reproduce the observed warming  when including the effects of human activities, in particular the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

These climate models show a dominant warming effect of greenhouse gas increases, which has been partly offset by the cooling effect of increases in atmospheric aerosols.

By contrast, simulations that include only natural processes such as variations in the activity of the Sun and emissions from large volcanoes are not able to reproduce the observed warming.

The fact that simulations including only natural processes show much smaller temperature increases indicates that natural processes alone cannot explain the strong rate of warming observed.

Extra evidence

An additional line of evidence for the role of humans in driving climate change comes from comparing the rate of warming observed over recent decades with that which occurred prior to human influence on climate. Evidence from tree rings and other paleoclimate records shows that the rate of increase of global surface temperature observed over the past fifty years exceeded that which occurred in any previous 50-year period over the past 2000 years.

Taken together, this evidence shows that humans are the dominant cause of observed global warming over recent decades.

Humans and climate change – comprehension exercise

Using the article make a list of all of the evidence that is available for proving what is responsible for climate change.

  1. What are the natural drivers of climate change?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
  2. What are the main human drivers of climate change?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
  3. What is a climate model and how do they work?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  4. Using graph a, make two statements about the recent warming in the context of:
    • i) the last 2000 years
    • ii) the last 100,000 years?
  5. Using graph b which situation from the climate models matches the observed temperature change?                                                                                                                         
  6. What do the results of the climate models show when trying to explain why temperatures have increased in recent decades?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
  7. What other evidence is there to support that shown by the climate models?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
  8. What should governments and policymakers do to respond to this evidence?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Sources

    1. ipcc.ch. 2021. AR6 WGI Report Frequently Asked Questions. [online] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQs.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2021]. P. 14
    2. Analytics, M., 2021. Show Your Stripes. [online] Showyourstripes.info. Available at: https://showyourstripes.info/s/globe [Accessed 28 November 2021].
    3. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.8.  Accessed 28th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
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