Age Range: 11 to 14

Key Stage 3 – Extreme Weather

Post date 28 February 2022

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
Interrogate/critique these graphs
The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
Critiquing graphs
Reading scales
Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion

Download the resources

Teacher’s notes
Direct link to activity: https://teacher.desmos.com/activitybuilder/custom/620d869a7b64ad91aa69baa8

IPCC 2021 – Comparing Arctic and Global temperatures – using Excel

Post date 5 January 2022

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years”¹.

You are going to test this statement to see if it is true.

Resources

Arctic and global temperatures data spreadsheet

Tutorial: Using Formula in Excel

Tutorial: Creating Line Graphs in Excel

Contrast the results of your averages and the range for global air temperatures and those in the Arctic
Using the Change over time value in your table consider oif the statement “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years” is true.

Complete the graph above which shows data on Global and Arctic temperature change from 1900 to 2020;
- Add a title to the graph
- Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Global data
- Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Arctic data
- Try to predict the future! Continue your line of best fit for both Global and Arctic lines on until 2100. To do so follow the recent tend and try to project that into the future.
- What could change the future? Think about government policies relating to climate change and the future.

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Place the following information into a logical sequence to explain why the Arctic is warming faster that the global average:

Sources

IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.3461. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
Ecochard, K., 2021. NASA – What’s causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?. [online] Nasa.gov. Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html Accessed 29 November 2021.
The annual mean global and Arctic temperature time series are provided by Dr. Muyin Wang. Values are the weighted average of all the non-missing, grid-box anomalies plus the absolute temperature. They are based on the monthly global gridded data (5×5 grid box ) and the absolute temperature, that has been developed by the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Angliaand NCAS) jointly with the Hadley Centre (UK Met Office).

IPCC 2021 – Comparing Arctic and Global temperatures

Post date 5 January 2022

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years”¹.

You are going to test this statement to see if it is true.

Contrast the results of your averages and the range for global air temperatures and those in the Arctic
Using the Change over time value in your table consider oif the statement “It is very likely that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years” is true.

Complete the graph above which shows data on Global and Arctic temperature change from 1900 to 2020;
- Add a title to the graph
- Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Global data
- Draw a curved line of best fit between the data shown for the start of each decade for the Arctic data
- Try to predict the future! Continue your line of best fit for both Global and Arctic lines on until 2100. To do so follow the recent tend and try to project that into the future.
- What could change the future? Think about government policies relating to climate change and the future.

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Place the following information into a logical sequence to explain why the Arctic is warming faster that the global average:

Sources

IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.3461. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
Ecochard, K., 2021. NASA – What’s causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?. [online] Nasa.gov. Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html Accessed 29 November 2021.
The annual mean global and Arctic temperature time series are provided by Dr. Muyin Wang. Values are the weighted average of all the non-missing, grid-box anomalies plus the absolute temperature. They are based on the monthly global gridded data (5×5 grid box ) and the absolute temperature, that has been developed by the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Angliaand NCAS) jointly with the Hadley Centre (UK Met Office).

IPCC 2021 – Evidence for Past Climate Change

Post date 5 January 2022

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “In 2019, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years, and concentrations of CH₄and N₂O were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years. Since 1750, increases in CO₂ (47%) and CH₄ (156%) concentrations far exceed, and increases in N₂O (23%) are similar to, the natural multi-millennial changes between glacial and interglacial periods over at least the past 800,000 years.”¹

Source:IPCC¹

To gather information about the climate scientists need to use a wide range of sources. As can be seen on the graphic opposite, from 1800 onwards scientists can rely upon observations collected by various instruments. However to really understand climate change we need to examine longer term patterns going back thousands two hundreds of thousands of years. The evidence that we have for these can be taken for various sources as can be seen on graph B showing paleoclimatic sources of evidence. Paleoclimate is just a way of saying climate from the geological past.

Task:

Select one of the sources of instrumental observations and one of the paleoclimatic evidence and conduct some research into it.

Complete the tables to evaluate the methods of showing climate change.

Instrumental Evidence

Paleoclimate Evidence

Sources

IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P10. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)

IPCC 2021 – Changing Climate Zones

Post date 5 January 2022

According to the IPCC report for Policymakers “Changes in the land biosphere since 1970 are consistent with global warming: climate zones have shifted poleward in both hemispheres, and the growing season has on average lengthened by up to two days per decade since the 1950s North of the Tropic of Cancer”¹

Complete the table below on the positives and negatives of the changes described above

Summary of changes to the Biosphere from the report²

Warming contributed to an overall spring advancement in the Northern Hemisphere.
There are increases in the length of the thermal growing season over much of the land surface since at least the mid-20th century. The thermal growing season is the length of time in a calendar year when temperatures are warm enough for agricultural activity.
Over the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, an increase of about 2.0 days per decade is evident for 1951–2018 with slightly larger increases north of 45°N.
Over North America, a rise of about 1.3 days per decade is apparent in the United States for 1900–2014 with larger increases after 1980.
Growing season length in China increased by at least 1.0 days per decade since 1960 .
Peak bloom dates for cherry blossoms in Kyoto, Japan have occurred progressively earlier in the growing season in recent decades. In 2021, peak bloom was reached on 26 March, the earliest since the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting the data in 1953 and 10 days ahead of the 30-year average.³
Grape harvest dates in Beaune, France have also been earlier. Using harvest data for Beaune stretching back nearly 700 years it has been noted that from 1354 to 1987, grapes were on average picked from 28 September whereas during the last 31-year-long period of rapid warming from 1988 to 2018, harvests began 13 days earlier.⁴

2. Map the changes listed above on the appropriate regions on the world map below:

Source – https://equal-earth.com/

Changes in dates for various plants, crops and regions

Image source: Adjusted from IPCC ¹

Add straight lines of best fit to each graph.
What has happened to the date of the grape harvest in France? Use data to describe the change.
Which graph shows the greatest change?
Which graph shows the smallest change?
How might these changes affect insect, bird and land animals? You could research these and consider migration, harvesting, hibernation and flowering times.
How might these changes affect farmers and food supply?

The change in growing season in the USA

Study the graph⁵ below:

Complete the table below using information from the graph. Use the nearest WHOLE NUMBER available.

Explain which location has the greatest change in its growing season. Use data from the table above in your response.
Make a list of advantages that this shift in growing season will bring to the USA.

Sources:
1. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.7. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
2. IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.517. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
3. Associated Press (author unknown), 2021. Climate crisis ‘likely cause’ of early cherry blossom in Japan. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/climate-crisis-likely-cause-of-early-cherry-blossom-in-japan [Accessed 28 November 2021]
4. Mercer, C., 2021. Burgundy harvests getting earlier as vineyards heat up, says study – Decanter. [online] Decanter. Available at: https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/burgundy-harvests-earlier-study-423807/ [Accessed 28 November 2021].
5. US EPA. 2021. Climate Change Indicators: Length of Growing Season | US EPA. [online] Available at: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season [Accessed 28 November 2021].

IPCC 2021 – Which Regions have been affected the most by climate change?

Post date 5 January 2022

“A.3 Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since AR5”¹

Consider the three following maps with your students, or alternatively focus in on one of the maps.

Heavy Precipitation

“A.3.2 The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most land area for which observational data are sufficient for trend analysis (high confidence), and human-induced climate change is likely the main driver. Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions due to increased land evapotranspiration (medium confidence).”¹

Source: Adjusted from IPCC ¹

Study carefully the map above which shows an assessment of the observed change in heavy precipitation across the globe.
How many of the regions showing on the map have experienced an increase in heavy precipitation?
How many of the regions shown on the map have experienced a decrease in heavy precipitation?
What is the situation in the region where you live with regards to changes in heavy precipitation?
Identify the region where there is high confidence in the human contribution to the observed change.
Use TEA (Trend, Evidence, Anomoly) to describe the patterns shown on the map above. Which regions have had an increase in observed heavy precipitation? Which regions have limited evidence?
Suggest what impacts an increase in heavy precipitation might have.
Look closely at the areas that have limited data and/or literature. Can you suggest reasons why these areas have limited data and literature in relation to heavy precipitation?

Hot Extremes

“A.3.1 It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver14 of these changes. Some recent hot extremes observed over the past decade would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. Marine heatwaves have approximately doubled in frequency since the 1980s (high confidence), and human influence has very likely contributed to most of them since at least 2006.”¹

Source: Adjusted from IPCC ¹

The IPCC define an extreme weather event as “an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer” than the top or bottom 10% of observed events. Therefore, for hot extremes these would be periods where temperatures are in the top 10% for that region.¹

Study the map above carefully which shows an assessment of the observed change in hot extremes across the globe.
How many of the regions showing on the map have experienced an increase in hot extremes?
How many of the regions shown on the map have experienced a decrease in hot extremes?
What is the situation in the region where you live with regards to changes in hot extremes?
Identify the region where there is high confidence in the human contribution to the observed change.
Describe the patterns shown in the regions that have had an increase in observed hot extremes.
Suggest what impacts an increase in hot extremes might have.
Look closely at the areas that have limited data and/or literature on both the hot extremes and heavy precipitation maps. There are more regions with limited data on the heavy precipitation map. Can you suggest reasons why?

Agricultural and Ecological Drought

“A.3.5 Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events18 since the 1950s. This includes increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale (high confidence)”¹

Image source: Adjusted from IPCC ¹

The IPCC define Drought as “A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological (water) imbalance.”¹ This would mean that the amount of rain that falls is not sufficient to meet agricultural (farming) or ecological (the plants and animals in a region) needs and during the growing season impinges on crop production or ecosystem function.

How many of the regions showing on the map have experienced an increase in agricultural and ecological drought?
How many of the regions shown on the map have experienced a decrease in agricultural and ecological drought?
Identify the two regions where there is medium confidence in the human contribution to the observed change.
What is the situation in the region where you live with regards to changes in agricultural and ecological drought?
Describe the patterns shown in the regions that have had an increase in observed agricultural and ecological drought.
Suggest what impacts an increase in agricultural and ecological drought might have.
Look closely at the areas that have limited data and/or literature. Can you suggest reasons why these areas have limited data and literature in relation to agricultural and ecological drought?

Overview – Which Regions have been Affected the Most?

Source: Adjusted from IPCC ¹

Using the graphic above identify three places but are affected negatively by all three situations [hot extremes, heavy precipitation, and agricultural and ecological drought]
Using the graphic identify an area that that is affected by fewest of the situations?
Which areas on the map should be a priority for further research into the effects of climate change? Explain your answer.
Which of the three situations have affected most regions of the world? Use evidence from the maps to support your answer.
Write a letter to your local MP, use evidence from the graphic to justify the need for action on climate change. You should focus upon the urgent need for action and how that can be implemented (done) locally.

Geographical information systems activity

Visit the website below, it is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Interactive Atlas. IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas Click on the regional information button, it will bring up an interactive map. Complete the table below using information from the map. You will need to use the menu tools above the map, changing the variable and scenario. Complete this for the Near Term. If you finish, you could repeat for the Long Term on a new sheet and then compare results.

Overall what does the table and map show you about global climates in the future?

Note

SSP1-2.6: Global CO₂ emissions are cut severely, but not as fast, reaching net-zero after 2050. Temperatures stabilize around 1.8°C higher by the end of the century.
SSP5-8.5: Current CO₂ emissions levels roughly double by 2050. The global economy grows quickly, but this growth is fuelled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4°C higher.

Sources:

IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. P.11. Accessed 28^th November 2021 at Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)

Key Stage 3 – Trees and Carbon Capture

Post date 9 December 2021

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

Why trees are good
How much carbon do trees capture and store?
How does the amount of carbon captured and stored by a tree change during its lifecycle?

Mathematical opportunities offered

Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
Critiquing graphs
Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion
Making assumptions
Making predictions
Reading scale

Download the resources

Key Stage 3 – Trees for Net Zero (Extended Resource)

Post date 9 December 2021

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

Why trees are good
People are planting trees – estimates around what the numbers look like in terms of land use
Some companies encourage you to offset flights by planting trees – how many trees for one flight?
How much carbon do trees capture and store?
How does the amount of carbon captured and stored by a tree change during its lifecycle?
What happens to that carbon when a tree dies?
Can you plant a tree to offset a flight?
What is Net Zero?

Mathematical opportunities offered

Estimation and proportional reasoning
Developing a sense of scale of large numbers
Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
Critiquing graphs
Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion
Making assumptions
Making predictions
Reading scales

Download the resources

Our Solar System

Post date 14 September 2021

True or False?

Web page reproduced with kind permission of the Met Office

Hydrological Cycle

Post date 14 September 2021

Label the diagram using the words and phrases.

Words: Bedrock, River Flow, Storage, Precipitation, Transportation, Condensation, Sea (storage), Transpiration, Infiltration, Percolation, Groundwater, Absorption, Run off, Evaporation

Web page reproduced with kind permission of the Met Office

Resources

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Sources

Why is the Arctic warming faster that the rest of the globe?

Sources

Task:

Instrumental Evidence

Paleoclimate Evidence

Changes in dates for various plants, crops and regions

The change in growing season in the USA

Heavy Precipitation

Hot Extremes

Agricultural and Ecological Drought

Overview – Which Regions have been Affected the Most?

Geographical information systems activity

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