Scotland’s Curriculum – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
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Scotland’s Curriculum Fourth Level Maths – Egypt’s Road Problem

In this resource linked to COP27 in Egypt, maths students apply pythagoras’ theorem to solving Egypt’s road building conundrum. 

Introduction/Motivation

The 2022 United Nations climate change conference (27th session of the Conference of Parties – COP27) will be held in Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt, starting on the 7th of November.

In the introduction video screened at the end of COP26 in Glasgow, Egypt celebrates its road-building project. This resource explores efficient road designs and the climate impacts of car travel.

Resources:

PowerPoint

4 City square template

Created with support from MEI 

Section 1: Lesson Introduction

Show the Egypt introduction video from COP26 and show them the pictures of new Egyptian roads.

Road-building clip only:

Or the full Egypt introductory clip: from 09:21-12:26 in https://unfccc-cop26.streamworld.de/webcast/closing-plenary-of-the-cop-followed-by-cmp-and-c-2

Ask students what comments or questions they have on the video: What do they wonder?

They could discuss in pairs or groups before giving feedback to the class.
You could steer the discussion towards some of the following points:

  • What are the advantages and disadvantages of building new roads?
  • What do you thing about building new roads compared to the other climate mitigation and adaptation projects mentioned in the video?
  • Roads for sustainable development: connecting cities and industry
  • Will a new road reduce traffic?
  • Building roads versus building railways/airports
  • How will building new roads impact greenhouse gas emissions?
  • Should houses be demolished to make way for new roads? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypts-road-building-drive-eases-jams-leaves-some-unhappy-2021-05-14/
  • How should governments decide which new roads to build? How can we reduce travel time for the most people, reduce the length of the new road or reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from people travelling on the road?

The remainder of the lesson uses maths to explore the last point.

Section 2: Scenario motivation for the Steiner problem

This could be introduced as motivation for the Steiner problem, or as a real world application once the problem has been solved (after section 3).

One of the new roads connects Beni Suef and Zaafarana. https://scoopempire.com/where-to-%EF%BB%BFegypt-launches-a-series-of-road-and-construction-projects-to-link-up-cities-far-and-wide/

Together with the important cities of Cairo and Suez, this can be simplified and framed as an example of the famous ‘Steiner Problem’: 

Source: Google maps

Which looks a bit like:

 

Steiner problem

Section 3: Steiner Problem using a Square


To simplify the problem, start by investigating 4 cities in a square. What is the most efficient way to connect all the cities (using the shortest distance of road)? You need to be able to visit all the cities on the road network, but you can go via other cities.

This problem is also described here: https://nrich.maths.org/14937

Students can use the sheet of squares (or squared paper) to draw as many different designs as they can think of, using curves and straight lines, or just straight lines.

Collect some ideas and ask students to calculate the total road distance required. For the square side length, you could use realistic road-distance numbers (eg 100km), simple numbers (eg 10, 1) or a symbol such as x. Students could first measure the distances using a ruler, then calculate them using Pythagoras’ theorem.

Help students to arrive at the optimal solution by considering the two designs below: Is there an intermediate design that would be even better?

Once students have arrived at the optimal solution, this video gives a good demonstration using soap bubbles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAyDi1aa40E

Section 4: Context Calculations

At this point you could choose to start using realistic road distances or the fact that the cities are not in a square but are closer to a rectangle (see the first extension point below).

  • What is the total distance of the optimal network? How long would it take to travel between each city whilst travelling at the Egyptian motorway speed limit of 100km/hr? (https://www.autoeurope.ie/driving-information-egypt)
  • Assume that the roads connecting Beni Suef to Cario, Cairo to Suez and Suez to Zaafarana already exist. Which one new road should be built to reduce the travel time from Beni Suef to Zaafarana? What is the reduction in travel time?
  • Cars emit around 120 gCO2/km (https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/average-co2-emissions-from-motor-vehicles/assessment-1)
    By how much does the new road reduce the CO2 emissions of a journey from Beni Suef to Zaafarana?
  • Due to the shorter travel time, the new road might increases the number of journeys between Beni Suef and Zaafarana. How many extra journeys are needed to outweigh the decrease in emissions from the reduced distance?

Extension Ideas

  • Return to the introduction video at the end of the lesson. What do students think about building roads and climate change after completing the activity?
    • The 4 cities in Egypt are not in a perfect square, but are close to being in a rectangle. Does this change the optimal road network? This is discussed at https://thatsmaths.com/2015/01/29/the-steiner-minimal-tree/
  • Students could use google maps to look at the real travel time between the 4 cities using different routes.
  • What happens when we consider more cities?
  • Can students think of other situations where this problem could apply? (gas pipelines, rail networks, broadband cables)
  • Think about the real-world practicalities that the Steiner solution doesn’t address. Is it the best solution if most journeys are between Cairo and Suez? Should existing roads be removed in order to build the most efficient network? Which journey times would be increased by this?
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Storm Surges

Watch this short animation to learn about the causes and impacts of storm surges in the UK, as well as the expected impact of climate change on them. 

At the bottom of the page, you can download a Knowledge Organiser to complement the animation.

With thanks to the students and staff at Boston College for their contribution to the animation. 

Isaac Physics

Isaac Physics logo

A diverse range of questions based on applications of physics in weather and climate, including sea level rise, radar frequencies,  aerosols, oceanic circulation, tidal barrages etc. 

Isaac Physics is an online study tool developed by the University of Cambridge. Isaac Physics questions are self marking practice questions for secondary school and undergraduate scientists. 

Snowflake fall speed

Aerosol attenuation

Barometric formula

Concentration of Oxygen

Cooling Tree

Electric Car Electrics

Electric Charge of Earth

Hadley Cell

How much Rain?

Isotrope Concentrations and Ocean Circulation

Kite Heights

Radar Reflectivity Units

Radar wavelengths and frequencies

Earth radiation balance

Sea Level Rise

Temperature Records and Uncertainties

Tidal Barrage

Urban Heat Island

Wind Turbine

Wind Turbine Power

Mass of the Atmosphere

Maths for Planet Earth

Climate-based questions for students and teachers. A team of students and academics at the University of Oxford developed these Maths for Planet Earth questions.

Fieldwork Suggestions for Independent Investigations

Some ideas, data sources and guidance for students wishing to include weather measurements in their NEA or EPQ.

Updated November 2022

A guide to collecting weather data

https://www.rgs.org/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?nodeguid=59f46632-ae51-4ea7-ab94-a0c537eb3c71&lang=en-GB

Passage of a depression

https://www.metlink.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/depression_wow_teacher_Eva.pdf
Data source:

http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

Weather and Health/ Behaviour

Data source: http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

Urban Climates

Using Wow data to look at urban heat islands https://www.metlink.org/resource/using-wow-to-illustrate-the-urban-heat-island-effect/

Urban winds: fieldwork guidance can be found on https://www.metlink.org/fieldwork-resource/fieldwork-in-geography/

Urban temperature https://www.metlink.org/fieldwork-resource/urban-heat-island-introduction/
Data source: http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

Community resilience to extreme weather

Local microclimate

https://www.metlink.org/fieldwork-resource/using-usb-temperature-dataloggers/

https://www.rgs.org/schools/teaching-resources/quick-and-easy-ideas/

Data source: http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

Factors affecting rainfall:


https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/tuesday-wettest-day-of-week-suggests-new-analysis/
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2321

Orographic rainfall https://www.metlink.org/resource/orographic-relief-rainfall-and-the-foehn-effect/

 

Red Sky at Night


https://www.metlink.org/resource/red-sky-teachers/ with an introductory concept cartoon from the ASE 
https://www.metlink.org/blog/folklore/weather-folklore/

Snow

 https://www.metlink.org/blog/extreme-weather/when-will-it-snow/

Sky Colour


https://www.exploringoverland.com/constantapprentice/2021/8/10/making-a-cyanometer-to-measure-sky-moisture-through-color with https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/interactive-map pollution forecast and pollen forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/health/public/pollen-forecast

Weather and Flooding


Data source: National River Flow Archive http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/ and https://environment.data.gov.uk/hydrology/index.html#/landing

Sea level

http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/GCSE/AQA/Coastal%20Zone/Sea%20level%20rise/Sea%20level%20rise.htm

Land and Sea breezes, sea breeze front

Data source: http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

Air Masses


https://earth.nullschool.net/
http://www1.wetter3.de/Archiv/archiv_ukmet.html
various links on https://www.metlink.org/teaching-resources/?_sft_topic=air-masses
including https://www.metlink.org/resource/pressure-and-rainfall/
Data source: http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk

General resources


https://www.metlink.org/fieldwork-resource/instruments-and-fieldwork/


https://www.rgs.org/schools/teaching-resources/key-stage-five/extreme-weather/


https://www.metlink.org/fieldwork/


https://www.rgs.org/schools/teaching-resources/a-student-guide-to-the-a-level-independent-investi/


https://www.field-studies-council.org/resources/16-18-geography/route-to-enquiry/

IPCC 2021 – Extreme Heat in Urban Africa

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Climate change has increased heat waves (high confidence) and drought (medium confidence) on land, and doubled the probability of marine heatwaves around most of Africa.

Heat waves on land, in lakes and in the ocean will increase considerably in magnitude and duration with increasing global warming.

Most African countries will enter unprecedented high temperature climates earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher latitude countries, emphasising the urgency of adaptation measures in Africa.

IPCC 2021 – Energy Security in Africa

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  • The focus of these resources are to explore climate change and energy security in Africa.
  • Hydro electric power has been identified as a more sustainable way for Africa to achieve energy security in the future.
  • Throughout the continent of Africa there are already many hydroelectric power stations, with many more planned over the coming decades.
  • Climate change could potentially impact upon these plans. These resources focus upon that relationship.

IPCC 2021 – Climate Change in Africa

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Africa: Climate Change Impact and Mitigation

Africa is one of the lowest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet key development sectors are already experiencing widespread losses and damages attributed to human-induced climate change.

Widespread negative impacts of 1.5-2°C of global warming are projected for Africa. These impacts are likely to be severe due to reduced food production, reduced economic growth, increased inequality and poverty, biodiversity loss, and increased human mortality.

Exposure to climate change in Africa is multi-dimensional. There are socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors which make people more vulnerable. Socioeconomically, Africans are disproportionately employed in climate-exposed sectors: 55-62% of the sub-Saharan workforce is employed in agriculture and 95% of cropland is rainfed. In decision-making, particularly in rural Africa, poor and female-headed households have less sway and face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards. Environmentally, in urban areas, growing informal settlements without basic services increase the vulnerability of large populations to climate hazards, especially women, children, and the elderly.

Climate adaptation across Africa is therefore crucial to lessen the impact of future warming, is generally cost-effective, and will provide social, economic, and environmental benefits to the vulnerable. However, the current finance available is far less than adaptation costs. Most adaption options are effective at present-day warming but their effectiveness for future warming is unknown.

Climate: Impact and projected risks

Most African countries will enter unprecedented high temperature climates earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher latitude countries, emphasising the urgency of adaptation measures in Africa.

Both mean temperature and extreme temperature trends will increase across the continent, resulting in more heatwaves and drought. With above 1.5°C of global warming, drought frequency and duration will particularly increase over southern Africa. If 2°C global warming occurs there will be decreased precipitation in North Africa whilst any rise above 3°C of global warming will lead to drought duration in North Africa, the western Sahel, and southern Africa doubling from 2 to 4 months.

Bar north and southwestern Africa, rainfall events will also increase in frequency and intensity across Africa, at all levels of global warming.

Consequently, multiple African countries are facing compounding risks in the twenty-first century.

Hydrological variability and water scarcity will increase and will have a cascading impact on water supply and hydrological power production.

Climate change has already reduced economic growth across Africa, one estimate suggests gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 1991–2010 in Africa was on average 13.6% lower than if climate change had not occurred.

Future warming will negatively affect food systems in Africa by shortening growing seasons and increasing water stress. With 1.5°C of global warming, declines are projected in suitable areas for coffee and tea in east Africa, for olives yields in north Africa, and for sorghum yields in west Africa.

Mortality and morbidity are expected to escalate as of tens of millions of Africans will be exposed to extreme weather and an increase in the range and transmission of infectious diseases.

Climate change is projected to increase migration. Africa’s rapidly growing cities will be hotspots of risks from climate change and climate-induced in-migration, which will amplify pre-existing stresses such as poverty, informality, social and economic exclusion, and governance.

Increasing temperatures are likely to cause drought-associated conflict risk.

IPCC 2021 – Wildfire

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Wildfire: Causes, Impacts and Responses

Wildfire is a natural and essential part of many forest, woodland and grassland ecosystems, killing pests, releasing plant seeds to sprout, thinning out small trees and serving other functions essential for ecosystem health. Excessive wildfire, however, can kill people, the smoke can cause breathing illnesses, destroy homes and damage ecosystems.

Anthropogenic climate change increases wildfire by exacerbating its three principal driving factors: heat (by drying out vegetation and accelerating burning), fuel and ignition. Non-climatic factors also contribute to wildfires—in tropical areas, fires are set intentionally to clear forest for agricultural fields and livestock pastures.

Urban areas and roads create ignition hazards. Governments in many temperate-zone countries implement policies to suppress fires, even natural ones, producing unnatural accumulations of fuel in the form of coarse woody debris and high densities of small trees. The fuel accumulations cause particularly severe fires that burn upwards into tree crowns.

Globally, 4.2 million km2 of land per year burned on average from 2002 to 2016, with the highest fire frequencies in the Amazon rainforest, deciduous forests and savannas in Africa and deciduous forests in northern Australia.

Across the western USA, increases in vegetation aridity due to higher temperatures from anthropogenic climate change doubled burned area from 1984 to 2015 over what would have burned due to non-climate factors including unnatural fuel accumulation from fire suppression, with the burned area attributed to climate change accounting for 49%  of cumulative burned area.

Anthropogenic climate change doubled the severity of a southwest North American drought from 2000 to 2020 that has reduced soil moisture to its lowest levels since the 1500s, driving half of the increase in burned area. In British Columbia, Canada, the increased maximum temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change increased burned area in 2017 to its highest extent in the 1950–2017 record, seven to eleven times the area that would have burned without climate change.

In Alaska, USA, the high maximum temperatures and extremely low relative humidity due to anthropogenic climate change accounted for 33–60% of the probability of wildfire in 2015, when the area burned was the second highest in the 1940–2015 record.

In National Parks and other protected areas of Canada and the USA, climate factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and evapotranspiration) accounted for 60% of burned area from local human and natural ignitions from 1984 to 2014, outweighing local human factors (population density, roads and built area).

In summary, field evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change has increased the area burned by wildfire above natural levels across western North America in the period 1984–2017, at Global Mean Surface Temperature increases of 0.6°C–0.9°C, increasing burned area up to 11 times in one extreme year and doubling it (over natural levels) in a 32-year period.

Regarding global terrestrial area as a whole, from 1900 to 2000, fire frequency increased on one-third of global land, mainly from burning for agricultural clearing in Africa, Asia and South America.

Where the global average burned area has decreased in the past two decades, higher correlations of rates of change in burning to human population density, cropland area and livestock density than to precipitation indicate that agricultural expansion and intensification were the main causes.  The fire-reducing effect of reduced vegetation cover following expansion of agriculture and livestock herding can counteract the fire-increasing effect of the increased heat and drying associated with climate change.

The human influence on fire ignition can be seen through the decrease documented on holy days (Sundays and Fridays) and traditional religious days of rest. Overall, human land use exerts an influence on wildfire trends for global terrestrial area as a whole that can be stronger than climate change.

In the Amazon, deforestation for agricultural expansion and the degradation of forests adjacent to deforested areas cause wildfire in moist humid tropical forests not adapted to fire. Roads facilitate deforestation, fragmenting the rainforest and increasing the dryness and flammability of vegetation.

In the extreme fire year 2019, 85% of the area burned in the Amazon occurred in areas deforested in 2018. In the Amazon, deforestation exerts an influence on wildfire that can be stronger than climate change.

Overall, burned area has increased in the Amazon, Arctic, Australia and parts of Africa and Asia, consistent with, but not formally attributed to, anthropogenic climate change.

Deforestation, peat draining, agricultural expansion or abandonment, fire suppression and inter-decadal climate cycles exert a stronger influence than climate change on wildfire trends in numerous regions outside of North America.

The global increases in temperature from anthropogenic climate change have increased aridity and drought, lengthening the fire weather season (the annual period with a heat and aridity index greater than half of its annual range) on one-quarter of global vegetated area and increasing the average fire season length by one-fifth from 1979 to 2013.

Climate change has contributed to increases in the fire weather season or the probability of fire weather conditions in the Amazon, Australia, Canada, central Asia, East Africa and North America

In non-forest areas, the burned area correlates with high precipitation in the previous year, which can produce high grass fuel loads.

Globally, fire has contributed to biome shifts and tree mortality attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Through increased temperature and aridity, anthropogenic climate change has driven post-fire changes in plant regeneration and species composition in South Africa – in the fynbos vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, post-fire heat and drought and the legacy effects of exotic plant species reduced the regeneration of native plant species, decreasing species richness by 12% from 1966 to 2010

Continued climate change under high-emission scenarios that increase global temperature ~4°C by 2100 could increase global burned area by 50% to 70% and global mean fire frequency by ~30%. Lower emissions that would limit the global temperature increase to <2°C would reduce projected increases of global burned area to 30% to 35% and projected increases of fire frequency to ~20%.

Increased wildfire increases risks of tree mortality, biome shifts and carbon emissions as well as high risks from invasive species. Wildfire risks to people include death and destruction of their homes, respiratory illnesses from smoke, post-fire flooding from areas exposed by vegetation loss and degraded water quality due to increased sediment flow. Increased wildfire under continued climate change increases the probability of human exposure to fire and risks to public health.

Regions identified as being at a high risk of increased burned area, fire frequency and fire weather include: the Amazon, Mediterranean Europe, the Arctic tundra, Western Australia and the western USA.  Moreover, increased fire, deforestation and drought, acting via vegetation–atmosphere feedbacks, increase the risk of extensive forest dieback and potential biome shifts of up to half of the Amazon rainforest to grassland, a tipping point that could release an amount of carbon that would substantially increase global emissions.

In the Arctic tundra, boreal forests and northern peatlands, including permafrost areas, climate change under the scenario of a 4°C temperature increase could triple the burned area in Canada, double the number of fires in Finland and double the burned area in Alaska. Thawing of Arctic permafrost due to wildfires could release 11–200 Gt Carbon which could substantially exacerbate climate change.

In Venezuela, Brazil and Guyana, Indigenous knowledge systems have led to a lower incidence of wildfires, reducing the risk of rising temperatures and droughts.

The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area has a high concentration of plant species which are restricted to living in cool, wet climates and fire-free environments, but recent wildfires have burnt substantial stands that are unlikely to recover. Most of the area is managed as a wilderness zone and is currently carried out in a manner that allows natural processes to predominate. There has been a realisation that this ‘hands off’ approach will not be sufficient.  After the wildfires in 2016 caused extensive damage, significant efforts and resources were spent trying to protect the remaining stands of pencil pine during the 2019 fires, using new approaches including the strategic application of long-term fire retardant and the installation of kilometres of sprinkler lines.  However, there is concern that these interventions may have adverse effects if applied widely. Increasingly, there is an acknowledgment that the cessation of traditional fire use has led to changes in vegetation and there are calls to incorporate Aboriginal burning knowledge into fire management.

Wildfires pose a significant threat to electricity systems in dry conditions and arid regions.  Solar PV generation is reduced by clouds and is less efficient under extreme heat, dust storms, and wildfires.

Severe impacts on railway infrastructure and operations can arise from the occurrence of temperatures below freezing, excess precipitation, storms and wildfires.

Adaptation for natural forests includes conservation, protection and restoration measures.

Restoring natural forests and drained peatlands and improving sustainability of managed forests generally enhances the resilience of carbon stocks and sinks.

In managed forests, adaptation options include sustainable forest management, diversifying and adjusting tree species compositions to build resilience, and managing increased risks from pests and diseases and wildfires.

Successful forest adaptation requires cooperation, inclusive decision making with local communities, and recognition of the inherent rights of indigenous people.

Ecosystem-based adaptation measures can reduce climatic risks to people, for example restoring natural vegetation cover and wildfire regimes can reduce risks to people from catastrophic fires.

A case study to illustrate the innovativeness of indigenous adaptation is the Bedouin pastoralists of Israel, where wildfires are a major cause of deforestation. Competing land use has reshaped the landscape with pine monocultures and cattle farming, reducing the availability of land suitable for herding goats the indigenous way, across the original landscape of shrubland or maquis (consisting mostly of oak and Pistacia). In addition, since 1950, plant protection legislation has decreased Bedouin forest pastoralism by defining indigenous black goats as an environmental threat. This has led to nature reserves where no human interference is allowed and shrubland regeneration, which is susceptible to wildfires.

In 2019, many severe wildfires occurred in Israel due to extreme heatwaves and, in response, plant protection legislation was repealed, allowing Bedouin pastoralists to graze their goats in these areas once more. The amount of combustible undergrowth subsequently decreased, reducing the risk for wildfire whilst also facilitating indigenous food sovereignty among the Bedouin.

Modelling of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts, wildfire and human activities can provide keys to how people may be able to adapt to climate change.

Fire management plans and programmes are increasingly being developed, even in parts of Europe where wildfires are less common.

There is growing recognition of the need to shift fire management and suppression activities to co-exist with more fire on the landscape, particularly in North America. This includes widespread use of prescribed fire across landscapes to increase ecological and community-based resilience.

Climate-informed post-fire ecosystem recovery measures (e.g., strategic seeding, planting, natural regeneration), restoration of habitat connectivity and managing for carbon sequestration (e.g., soil conservation through erosion control, preservation of old growth forests, sustainable agroforestry) are critical to maximise long-term adaptation potential and reduce future risk through co-benefits with carbon mitigation. Prescribed fire and thinning approaches, including the use of indigenous practices, are receiving a new level of awareness.

Enhanced coordination between the health sector and fire suppression agencies can also reduce the health impacts of wildfire smoke via improving communication, weather forecasting, mapping, fire shelters and coordinating decision making.

All text and diagrams adapted from the WGII and WGIII reports of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ and https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2

MetLink - Royal Meteorological Society
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