How will the UK’s Temperature Change Seasonally (Spring)?

How will the UK’s Temperature Change During the 2030’s, 60’s and 90’s? Seasonally – March, April and May.

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  1. These 3 maps show projected March, April and May (MAM) temperatures in the 2030s, 60s and 90s (according to a high carbon dioxide emission scenario, A2).
  2. All values are anomalies – the difference in temperature to the average of 1970 to 1999 temperatures.
  3. Areas shaded red will be 6-7°C hotter than average temperatures from 1970 to 1999, whereas areas shaded green will be about the same as the 1970-1999 average.
  4. The number in the centre of each grid box is the average MAM temperature anomaly we expect having had high carbon dioxide emissions; the smaller numbers in the upper and lower corners give the range of average temperature anomalies that might occur.
  5. We use the term MAM rather than spring because most climate change maps are for the whole globe and seasons are reversed in the northern and southern hemispheres.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the UK’s Temperature Change Seasonally – Winter?

How will the UK’s Temperature Change Seasonally – December, January and February

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  1. These 3 maps show projected December, January and February (DJF) temperatures in the 2030s, 60s and 90s (according to a high carbon dioxide emissions scenario, A2).
  2. All values are anomalies – the difference in temperature to the average of 1970 to 1999 temperatures.
  3. Areas shaded red will be 6-7°C hotter than average temperatures from 1970 to 1999, whereas areas shaded green will be the same as the 1970-1999 average.
  4. The number in the centre of each grid box is the average projected temperature; numbers in the upper and lower corners give the highest and lowest possible DJF mean temperature.

 

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the UK’s Temperature Change?

How will the UK’s Temperature Change Between 2009 and 2100

  1. The green, blue and red lines show projected future temperature anomalies from 2006 to 2100, according to three different emission scenarios – green (low), blue (medium) and red (high). The shading around each line shows the range of temperature that might be possible with each emission scenario. The anomaly is the difference in temperature between the year’s projected temperature and the average of all years between 1970 and 1999. If the anomaly is positive, that year was warmer than the 1970-1999 average. If it is negative, that year was colder than the 1970-1999 average.
  2. All scenarios show future temperatures will be warmer.
  3. Average annual temperature is expected to increase by 0.4 to 2.4°Cby the 2060s, and 0.6 to 3.2°C by the 2090s.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the UK’s Precipitation Change?

  1. This graph shows the ‘precipitation anomaly’ – the difference in rain or snowfall to the 1970-1999 average. If the graph shows a positive number, then it is wetter than the 1970-1999 average. If the graph shows a negative number, then it is drier.
  2. The black line shows the actual precipitation anomaly for each year from 1960 to 2006. This is the difference in rain/ snowfall between the year’s recorded precipitation and the average of all years between 1970 and 1999.
  3. The brown line shows past precipitation anomalies as produced by a computer model with the brown shading showing the range produced by the model.
  4. The green, blue and red lines show projected future precipitation from 2006 to 2100, according to three different carbon dioxide emission scenarios – green (low), blue (medium) and red (high). The shading around each line shows the range of precipitation that might be possible with each emission scenario.Average rainfall has not consistently increased or decreased since 1960.
  5. Models project an overall increase in mean annual rainfall in the UK. The greatest changes will be in the autumn and winter (SON and DJF) and a decrease in rainfall in the summer.
  6. The range of projections bythe 2060’s is 2-8mm per month and -2 –11 mm per month by the 2090’s.
  7. Melt water from the Greenland Ice sheet into the North Atlantic is expected to cause a weakening of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation, reducing the effect of the Gulf Stream on the UK and Western Europe climate. This is likely to partially offset the overall warming.
  8. Coastal regions may be vulnerable to sea-level rise. However, the increases in absolute sea level are partially offset by gradual increase in land elevation in the north of the UK and vice-versa in the south.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the UK’s Annual Temperature Change?

How will the UK’s annual temperature change between the 2030s, 2060s, 2090s?

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  1. These 3 maps show projected temperatures in the 2030s, 60s and 90s (according to a high carbon dioxide emission scenario, A2).
  2. All values are anomalies – compared to average temperatures from 1970 to 1999.
  3. Areas shaded deep orange will be 6°C hotter than average temperatures from 1970 to 1999, whereas areas shaded green will be the same as the 1970-1999 average.
  4. The numbers in the centre of each grid box is the average projected temperature; numbers in the upper and lower corners give the highest and lowest possible annual mean temperature.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the Frequency of Hot Nights Change?

How will the United Kingdoms Frequency of Hot Nights Change?

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  1. Hot days will occur on 9-25% of days by 2060s and 14-35% of days by 2090s. The fastest increases will be in the summer (JJA).
  2. A hot night is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10% of nights in 1970-1999. So, in 1970 – 1999, you would have expected 1 in 10 nights to be hot. If the map shading indicates that more than 10% of nights are hot, then there has been an increase in the number of hot nights.
  3. In areas shaded deep red, every night will be a hot night. Yellow areas will have 30% hot nights.
  4. The number in the centre of each grid box is the number of hot nights we expect; the smaller numbers in the upper and lower corners give the range of numbers of hot nights that might occur.
  5. Hot nights will occur on 10-26% of all nights by the 2060s and 14-36% of nights by the 2090s.
  6. Cold days and nights will become less frequent, occurring on less than 6% of days by the 2090s.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How will the Frequency of Hot Days Change?

How will the United Kingdoms Frequency of Hot Days Change?

graphic 2060
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graphic 2090
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  1. These two maps show the percentage of hot days expected during the 2060s and 2090s given high carbon dioxide emissions through the century (scenario A2).
  2. A hot day is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days in 1970-1999. So, in 1970– 1999, you would have expected 1 in 10 days to be hot. If the map shading indicates that more than 10% of days are hot, then there has been an increase in the number of hot days.
  3. In areas shaded deep red, every day will be a hot day. Yellow areas will have 30% hot days.
  4. The number in the centre of each grid box is the number of hot days we expect; the smaller numbers in the upper and lower corners give the range of numbers of hot days that might occur.
  5. The frequency of hot days has increased since 1960 in every season – especially summer (JJA).
  6. Hot days will become more frequent in all areas of the UK.
  7. Hot days will occur on 9-25% of days by 2060s and 14-35% of days by 2090s. The fastest increases will be in the summer (JJA).

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

How did the UK’s Temperature Change?

How Did the UK’s Temperature Change Between 1960 and 2009?

  1. The black line shows the actual temperature anomaly for each year from 1960 to 2000. This is the difference in temperature between the year’s recorded temperature and the average of all years between 1970 and 1999. If the anomaly is positive, that year was warmer than the 1970-1999 average. If it is negative, that year was colder than the 1970-1999 average.
  2. The brown line shows past temperature anomalies as produced by a computer model with the brown shading showing the range of temperatures produced by the model.
  3. Since 1960 the average temperature has increased by 0.9°C – a rate of 0.20°C per decade.

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

Climate Glossary

Select a letter to view the terms:

Climate for Classrooms

Resources to support the teaching and learning of climate change

Our changing climate will impact at the global, national and local scales. Through some of the latest scientific data and projections, Climate4classrooms provides curriculum linked teaching resources about climate change for pupils.

Resources include:

  • Data sets showing the latest global and national climate predictions
  • Climate science brought to life by the experts
  • Case studies investigating global, national and local impacts and solutions
  • Guidance for teachers on using the resources

The resources in this section have been developed in collaboration with climate scientists and using data from the latest research, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

About climate change – some in depth answers to key questions such as:

What is Climate Change?
What causes climate change?
The evidence for climate change
How do we predict the future?
What will the future look like?
How is your temperature changing?
How are your seasons changing?
Changes in hot days and nights
How will precipitation change?
Climate change in your community,
Mitigation and adaptation.

UK climate data. You can find climate graphs for other countries here.

glossary of climate change terms.

Teaching Resources

Teaching resources covering the following topics can be found at https://www.rgs.org/schools/teaching-resources/climate-4-classrooms/