Extreme Heat Fieldwork and Adaptation

Field Studies Council

This resource has been developed by Rob Gamesby (Cool Geography) with the Royal Meteorological Society and the Field Studies Council for the National Festival of Fieldwork.

 All schools in England have to produce a Climate Action Plan, and part of that action plan involves assessing the schools’ vulnerability to extreme weather, such as heatwaves, and taking actions to reduce the risk of extreme heat.

These fieldwork options are designed to allow secondary geography students in our schools to explore how vulnerable their school is and what can be done to adapt to that risk.

Scheme of Work – start here!

Background information for teachers

Guidance for school Sustainability Leads

Lesson 1 – Introduction, Community Reminiscences and School Questionnaires

PowerPoint

Reminiscences data collection Sheet

Questionnaire data collection sheet

Fieldwork Option – Variations in Temperature in the School Grounds

PowerPoint

Spreadsheet

Data collection sheet

Fieldwork Option – the impact of trees on temperature

PowerPoint

Spreadsheet

Data collection sheet

Fieldwork Option – Variations in Temperature between classrooms

PowerPoint

Spreadsheet

Data collection sheet

Scotland’s Curriculum – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
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Climate Change Transition Day

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Notes for Person Delivering the Event

These resources are designed to be used in one session with year 6 (10/ 11 year old) students. Although they will support numeracy, literacy and various other aspects of the curriculum, they are designed to prepare students for secondary school rather than support the year 6 curriculum.

There are 6 suggested activities. Although they are designed to be run sequentially, you may choose to use only some of the activities, or to supplement them with your own ideas.

You may like to ask them to summarise their learning after each activity – this could be on post it notes on a cloud, or …

It should be possible to use these activities with any class size.

Many people, including Ellie Highwood, Cristina Charlton-Perez, Helen Johnson and Laila Gohar, have contributed to these resources.

1) The difference between weather and climate

Time: 30 minutes

You will need: Weather or Climate.pptx, one printed copy of Weather or Climate.docx for each pair of students and two dice per pair of students.

a) Show the images in the PowerPoint presentation and ask the students what each image shows and whether it is ‘weather’ or ‘climate’. Some may not have a clear answer!
b) Ask the students to get into pairs and give each pair one sheet and two dice.
c) Give them 5 minutes to roll both dice and record the combined score each time they roll as a tally chart.
d) Optional: ask them to turn this tally into a bar chart on the graph paper provided.
e) Can they predict what number they would roll next, if they had the chance?
f) Talk about how the graph shows the most likely score (the climate) but also the complete range of possible scores (the weather). What scores are ‘extreme’?
g) What happens to the numbers if the ‘1’ on one of the dice is changed into a ‘7’?

2) Climate change graph

lollipop sticks

Time: 30 minutes

You will need: 120 multicoloured lollipop sticks (at least 10 sticks each of 6 colours), Climate_Change_Picture.pptx, lollipop.xls, blue tack or similar

Note: this probably works best with groups of about 6 students working on each graph, with larger groups more teacher involvement will be required to keep the whole group engaged.
a) Before the event, mark on the middle of each lollipop stick. On each stick, write the year and the temperature for one of the data points in the spreadsheet (e.g. 1970 14.47), differentiating between global and CET data. Use a different coloured lollipop for each decade – so the 60s are all one colour etc.
b) You’ll also need to print a blank graph – the document supplied will work on A3 paper.
c) Divide the students into two groups. Within each group, divide out the lollipop sticks.
d) They should then work together to stick the sticks to the graphs in the right places, using the line in the middle of the stick as the marker.
e) Whilst doing so, they can look at years that mean something to them – the year they were born, their parents were born etc.
f) When they’ve finished, ask them to complete the table on the ppt
g) What does their graph show? What surprises them? What are the similarities and differences between the graphs?
h) Optional: take the sticks back off the graph and, within their groups, line the sticks up in temperature order with the coldest on the left and the warmest on the right. What does this show?

Climate change graph

3) Climate change lucky dip

Time: 30 – 60 minutes

You will need: Lucky dip bag of things that have some link (vague or otherwise) to climate change. Each group takes an object, and then together works out what the connection is. After 10 mins groups swap
objects until all groups have seen all objects. (You could make a simple worksheet with a box for them to write their ideas for each item).
At the end – ask for feedback on each object and give them the “correct answer” – this can take a while – if you have 4 objects, this would make a 60 minute activity. I think they lose interest after 4 objects.

Example objects, depending on what you have available. Try and use objects which have both obvious and higher level ideas associated with them. Try and balance ‘doom and gloom’ with ‘opportunity and hope’ ideas.

Toy car: Emissions of greenhouse gases, also ozone and air pollution. Move talk
onto electric vehicles, nighttime charging etc.

Tree ring slice: Tree rings are an indirect way of measuring our climate etc, trees remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, forestation and deforestation.

Cuddly cow: Methane – but you could also talk about the climate impact of beef etc. as
that is now much more talked about.

Butterfly brooch: Most of the kids talk about different species adapting to climate change (they do evolution in year 6) but you can also refer to chaos and internal links between different parts of the climate system

Mini trainer shoe: Some “air” trainers used to have SF6 in which is a really strong
greenhouse gas. You could also use baby shoes to represent babies and population growth. Also transportation – where were these shoes made?

Mirror: Geo-engineering and space mirrors – but can also explain albedo in this
way.

Solar powered toy: Renewable energy sources

Windmill: Renewable energy sources, changing weather patterns

Bag of rice: Methane production, plants as absorbers of CO2

Cuddly polar bear, puffin or other iconic animal threatened by climate change.

Sponge: Link to bleaching coral reefs and plankton as photosynthesisers equivalent to land plants.

Chocolate bar: Clearing of rainforests for production and threat to cocoa plants as
temperature rises.

Bottle of frozen water: Melting glaciers and ice caps; link to albedo and positive feedback;
hydrogen fuel

Piece of charred wood: Sustainable fuels; increased forest fires.

4) Weather risk game

Time: 30 minutes

You will need: money.docx printed in colour, WeatherRiskGame.pptx, 6 dice – large ones which the whole class can see work best. I got some foam ones very cheaply.

a) Before the event, mark the dice ‘p’ and 1-5. On the die marked 1, cross out or otherwise mark one side, on the die marked 2 cross out or otherwise mark two sides etc. Crossed-out sides represent good weather and sides which aren’t crossed out represent bad weather. The more sides are crossed out, the lower the chance of bad weather!

foam dice

b) Use the ppt to guide the activity.
c) The students will need to get into 6 groups. Give each group one colour of money and ask them to cut it up. You should keep the ‘insured’ slips.
d) Each time you play, roll the P dice first. On the basis of which side it shows, the students should decide whether to insure their businesses or not (if a 6 is shown, then there is no chance of bad weather and presumably no-one will insure). If they choose to insure, they should pay you the appropriate sum in return for an ‘Insured’ slip. Then, roll the appropriate die (so if the P die gave a 3, next roll the die labelled 3). If a crossed-out side is rolled, then anyone who was not insured should pay you the appropriate sum.
e) Collect in all the insured slips and start again.
f) Continue until either one team, or all teams except one are out, depending on time.

5) Flooding, floating gardens and raft building

Time: 2.5 hours

You will need: Laptop and projector (for PowerPoint)
Whiteboard or flipchart for recording “purchases” by teams and competition results
5 or 6 small ziplock bags containing soil or sand and representing the crops of the garden.
Large and deep plastic box for use as “lake”
Towels
Access to water
Bundles of building materials e.g. plastic straws, lolly sticks, willow sticks, elastic bands, string, corks
Tape dispenser and scissors for each team
Additional materials for teams to “purchase” e.g. small plastic bottles with lids, plastic trays, bubble wrap, bags (anything else you can think of).
Topic: Flooding and climate change, developing world, adaptation.
Skills: teamwork, raft building, communication, budgeting, testing

Based on the Flooding Gardens activity from Practical Action.

Summary:
• Short powerpoint on flooding and impact of climate change. (15 mins)
• Set up problem of agriculture in Bangladesh (5 mins)
• Design and build of floating garden rafts according to specification in the power point (see also
below) – 40 mins including one opportunity for testing design
• Public competition – 20 mins
• Final few slides on real life application – 10 mins
Plus need a bit of time to set up in advance and definitely some to pack / clear up afterwards

Raft building part:
Each team needs to build a raft that could hold a floating garden. The winner is the team that builds a raft that can hold the most weight (small bags of soil) without the top surface of the raft being inundated with water. If using the budgeting version, secondary awards for cheap designs that work (although maybe not quite as well as the expensive ones).

Students are provided with a bag containing e.g. straws, willow sticks, elastic bands, sellotape dispenser, scissors, corks, lolly sticks. These represent “free” and available materials.

Also available are plastic bottles, plastic trays, bubble wrap and anything else you can think of – but these are kept at the front and have a price attached to them. The actual value you give them is arbitrary but they are supposed to represent things that are scarce in the communities we are considering. For example, plastic bottles might represent sealed oil drums, bubble wrap might be tarpaulins etc.

(Note, all materials can and should be recovered at the end of the session – the rafts are broken down and materials reused on other occasions).

With a year 6 group, you should be able to get them to discuss and draw out their design as a team first (maybe first 10 mins of building section), then send one person to get what they need (including paying – I haven’t given them a budget as such, just kept a record of what they have “spent”, but you could give each group a fixed budget if you wanted to (and then judge your winner differently).

6) Greenhouse Effect Bulldog

Time: 30 minutes
You will need: A playground. Chalk or similar. Hats or sashes (see below).
This playground game demonstrates the way Greenhouse gases return energy to the Earth’s surface – as well as allowing the students to run off some energy!
a) With chalk or similar, mark a Sun and an Earth at opposite ends of the school playground. If possible also draw a line across the playground, a third of the way between the Earth and the Sun.
b) Choose 2 students to be greenhouse gases – if possible give them a hat or sash to identify them.

Which greenhouse gases have they heard of? One could be water and the other carbon dioxide.

They are allowed to move only along the line you have drawn. Their role is to try and touch the other students as they run past but only when they are running from the Earth towards the Sun!
c) The other students are all ‘energy’ and start off by the Sun.
d) The ‘energy’ should run to the Earth and back again, repeatedly. If the ‘greenhouse gas’ students manage to touch them, then they have to run 10 times between the greenhouse gas line and the Earth before being allowed to return to the Sun.
e) After a few minutes of doing this, stop the students and increase the numbers of ‘greenhouse gas’ students – you could add a methane, or another water.
f) Again, let them play this for a while, then stop them and ask what has changed. They should notice that there is now more ‘energy’ trapped near the Earth.
g) You could increase the amount of greenhouse gas again and let them see what happens.
h) Finish by talking about how greenhouse gases are essential to maintaining our climate, but that increasing the amount of greenhouse gas leads to heating. You may need to talk a little bit about the different forms energy can take – light, heat etc.

greenhouse bulldog

Core Maths – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion.
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

Key Stage 3 – Extreme Weather

Resource produced in collaboration with MEI

Brief overview of session ‘logic’

  • Do reports of extreme cold weather provide evidence that global warming is not happening?
  • Show the New York Times graphs of summer temperature distributions for the Northern Hemisphere for different periods.
  • Interrogate/critique these graphs
  • The distributions of temperatures are approximately Normal distributions and the mean and standard deviation both increase as the time period becomes more recent.
  • Use the dynamic bell curve to calculate probabilities of different temperatures in different time periods.
  • Despite the mean temperature increasing, the standard deviation also increasing means that the probability of extreme low temperatures increases.
  • Normal distributions and bell curves can explain a higher frequency of extreme cold weather despite global warming.

Mathematical opportunities offered

  • Interpretation of data, statistics, graphs, infographics in context
  • Critiquing graphs
  • Reading scales
  • Using standard form to write very large or very small numbers
  • Fitting a Normal distribution or bell curve to a graph
  • Exploring the effect of adjusting mean and standard deviation on a bell curve
  • Understanding that probabilities can be represented and calculated using areas
  • Analysing and comparing data in order to develop and present a conclusion
Climate Change Quality Mark Content

How often will a heatwave hit the UK?

Royal Geographical Society

This resource links to Figure 11.12 in the IPCC report of 2021. The aim of this resource is to answer the question how often will a heatwave hit the UK?

It was written with the Royal Geographical Society with IBG

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Box and whisker plots

Figure 11.12 (see Appendix B) is a box and whisker plot. The graph highlights that extreme temperature events are forecast to increase in the twenty-first century. Extreme temperature events are defined as the daily maximum temperatures that were exceeded once during a 10-year (or 50-year) period.

The dataset for Figure 11.12 is from the paper Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models by Li et al., 2020. An extract of the data is shown below in Table 1 in Appendix A. The numbers in parenthesis ( ) and square brackets [ ] show respectively the central 66% and 90% uncertainty ranges of the estimated changes in annual maximum temperature, from identified warming level ‘windows’.

The warming of annual maximum temperature events is more uniform over land and increases linearly with global warming. There is high confidence that the magnitude of temperatures extremes will continue to increase more strongly than global mean temperature.

2021 heatwave

Figure 1 the European heatwave of 2021, heat is becoming more extreme and more frequent © University of Maine

The temperature at which an event is classed as a hot extreme is going up (faster than the mean temperature). In the mid-latitudes (between 30° and 60° north and south) the strongest warming is expected in the warm season, with an increase of up to 3°C for 1.5°C of global warming. This has led to events such as the ‘merciless’ temperature spike in Russia, and the ‘heat dome’ over North America in June 2021. The highest increase of temperature in the ‘hottest days’ is projected for some mid-latitude countries and semi-arid regions, such as in North America.

  1. The frequency with which hot events occur is also going up. Study Table 1 in Appendix A. Using Relative frequency change for a 1.5°C, 2°C and a 4°C future, draw a box and whisker plot for global land, with 90% uncertainty ranges. Use the following steps to draw your graph.

a. Draw an x axis and label Global warming above 1850-1900 (°C).

b. Draw the y axis and label Relative frequency change (for one in a 50-year events).

c. Identify the median (the middle) of the data set (which is given to you).

d. Use the 66% uncertainty data (parenthesis brackets) for each box plot.

e. Use the 90% uncertainty data [square bracket] for the whiskers.

In Europe the evidence predicts an increase in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes (warm days, warm nights, heat waves) and, in reverse, a decrease in the frequency and intensity of cold extremes. Heat wave increases will be greater over the south Mediterranean and Scandinavia with southern European cities expected to suffer the biggest increases in maximum heat wave temperatures.

Figure 2 extreme heat is afflicting Europe more regularly © Fabian Keller Unsplashed

2. Why do cities experience extreme heat more frequently?

3. Now repeat the same activity, graphing Relative frequency change, for the ocean dataset.

Whilst heatwaves will increase across Europe and in the UK, there will still be extreme cold in the future. It is a common misconception to think that, as the climate changes, we will only experience warm weather and extreme heat in the twenty-first century. In fact, the climate distribution will change. Extreme cold will still happen, just less frequently. Figure 3 below illustrates this misconception with a probability curve showing climate likelihood and temperature and, underneath, the change from our previous climate to a warmer one. Both the the threshold temperature for an event to be considered extreme, and the frequency of high temperatures, rise in a warming climate. 

temperature pdf
changing temperature pdf

Figure 3 climate graphs © The Royal Meteorological Society Weather and Climate: A Teachers’ Guide

Further work

Exam-style question 

Using all the work you have completed answer the final question below. The instruction is to assess the likelihood that heat wave frequency will increase in the UK. This means you must consider the different arguments, likelihoods, and levels of certainty, after weighing them up, to come to a conclusion. 

4. Assess the likelihood that heat wave frequency will increase in the UK.

Appendix A

extreme temperature data

Appendix B

IPCC AR6 extreme high temperatures

Figure 4 Projected changes in the intensity of extreme temperature events under 1°C, 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C global warming levels relative to the 1851-1900 baseline © The IPCC report

Answers

  1. As instructed. Figure 4 Appendix B shows a finished box and whisker plot.
  2. Southern Europe is experiencing extreme heat more frequently because high atmospheric pressure draws hot air from northern Africa, Portugal, and Spain up and across the continent with greater regularity. This raises temperatures and increases humidity. Heatwaves are being enhanced by drier soils, humidity, and low wind speeds making the effects particularly dangerous in urban areas. Changes to the North Atlantic jet stream and increasing instability and changing flow pattern of the Gulf Stream are some of the influences on Eurasian weather.As instructed.
  3. As instructed.
  4. As instructed. 

Is our Weather Becoming More Extreme?

Royal Geographical Society
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This is a teaching resource linked to section 11.1.4 of the sixth assessment IPCC report of 2021, written with the Royal Geographical Society with IBG. The aim is to answer the question: are we experiencing more weather extremes as a result of climate change?

Weather and climate

Weather and climate are separate concepts. Weather describes the short-term conditions in the atmosphere, whilst climate refers to its long-term state. Weather measurements might be hourly or daily readings of temperature (°C), rainfall (mm) and wind speed (m/s). Climate is usually defined as the average of 30 years of weather measurements.

Effects of greenhouse gas emissions and other external forcings

There is now evidence that climatic extremes have changed since the mid-twentieth century — and some of these changes have been the result of anthropogenic influence (if you do not understand the term read What is the Anthropocene? or go to the Natural History Museum webpage on why it matters). Generally speaking, extreme weather events have increased in intensity and frequency since pre-industrial time. In particular, global temperature has increased, both by annual average globally and in localised spikes.

  1. Before you begin this resource, define what the words ‘extreme’ and ‘rare’ mean.

The IPCC report says that even with relatively small incremental increases in global warming (as per the SSP1 pathway which holds global warming to 1.5°C) there will be ‘significant changes in extremes’ on the global scale and for large regions. It is:

  • Globally, (it is very likely) temperature extremes will continue
  • Heavy precipitation will intensify (predicted with high confidence in particular for North America, Europe, and Asia according to the Met Office)
  • Tropical cyclones are getting more intense (medium confidence)

The local exchanges of heat and the heat from the evaporation and condensation of moisture, called thermodynamic changes, create temperature extremes. Unprecedented temperatures begin with the initial thermodynamic effect (of a warming troposphere) and lead to increased intensity and frequency of hot extremes. Recently, this has been coupled with decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes.

  1. Do you know the different levels of the atmosphere? Sketch planet Earth with the text boxes below in the correct altitude sequence (add aeroplanes, satellites, the aurora borealis, the ozone layer, and the Kármán line to extend the activity).

 

layers of the atmosphere

As Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) increase there is an immediate impact on the temperature of the troposphere, stratosphere, and the surface of the Earth – land, sea and ice. The water vapour cycle intensifies as it becomes easier for water vapour to evaporate from the surface of the Earth and vegetation and for water vapour to condense into cloud droplets in a warmer troposphere. As water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas,  changes in atmospheric water vapour always amplify the initial temperature increases (a positive feedback) whilst the lapse rate[1] feedback also amplifies near-surface temperature increases (positive feedback) in mid- and high latitude countries, such as the UK. This means extreme weather from the larger cumulonimbus clouds and more severe thunderstorms.

[1] A lapse rate describes the rate at which temperature decreases with increasing altitude.

storm waves

Figure 1 extreme weather and huge waves crashing into Cornwall at high tide © Greg Martin

3. Figure 4 in Appendix A is a feedback diagram on the creation of extreme weather for a typical mid-latitude country. Complete the diagram using the explanation:

The greenhouse effect leads to the temperature of the troposphere and the surface of the Earth rising. With more heat available, evaporation and evapotranspiration rates from surface water and vegetation increases. With more water vapour available in a warmer atmosphere, more clouds can form. As the water vapour condenses, latent heat is released which further heats the atmosphere locally and promotes convection, warm air rising, and the further formation of cumulus clouds. (Latent heat is the energy absorbed by or released from a substance during the change from a gas to a liquid or a solid or vice versa). As a consequence, increased cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms creates ultimately causing extreme precipitation events.

4. Now add the processes to the blue connecting lines, using the explainers.

storm waves

Figure 2 extreme weather will increase both around the world, and specifically in the UK © Greg Martin

Extreme Weather

The IPCC report states that, for each additional 1°C, extreme rainfall will intensify by 7%. Currently annual rainfall on land is increasing and monsoons are changing in complex ways.

5. Analyse Figure 5 in Appendix B. Describe the overview for wet extremes and their potential for human contribution. Reference the areas: NWN and NEC, NEU, SEAF, and SAS.

Further work

Access the following resources for suggested further work on weather extremes.

Exam-style question

Using all the work you have completed answer the final question below. The instruction to assess means you should weigh up several opinions to conclude about their effectiveness or validity.

Use the State of the UK Climate 2020 special issue article (in the Further work list above) to inform your answer.

6. Assess whether UK weather is becoming more extreme in the twenty-first century.

train storm wave

Figure 3 big waves crash over the seafront in Penzance, Cornwall © Greg Martin

Appendix A

extreme weather positive feedback

Figure 4 a positive feedback loop for extreme weather

Appendix B

IPCC AR6 overview of assessed events

Figure 5 what has been observed in wet extremes around the world? © IPCC report

Answers

  1. An extreme weather event is defined as ‘an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year’ – a usual definition is an event which happens less than 5% of the time. For example, the warmest 5 July 1st days in London over the past 100 years would be defined as extremely warm. A short-term extreme climate event is ‘a pattern of extreme weather that persists for some time, such as a season.’ Some studies consider an event as extreme if it is unprecedented; on the other hand, other studies consider events that occur several times a year as moderate extreme events.
  2. The Earth has 5 major layers. In order from the surface of the planet upwards, they are Troposphere, Stratosphere, Mesosphere, Thermosphere, and Exosphere.
  3.  
extreme weather positive feedbacks

4. All sentences: amplifies temperature increase, stronger convection, more evaporation, and lapse rate feedback amplifies near-surface increases.

5. Overall, the pattern for observed wet extremes around the world is a general increase in the mid and high latitudes, in particular across the US, Europe and Eurasia. There has also been an increase in wet extremes in parts of South America, for example Argentina. The greatest risk region is by far northern Europe (NEU) with a high confidence level that these changes derive from human influence. India (SAS) has also experienced an increase in extreme precipitation with medium confidence from observed trends. Canada (NWN and NEC) and Kenya (SEAF) have a lack of evidence for extreme precipitation.

6. As instructed.

A Hurricane Direction Shift

The movement of a hurricane is modelled by vector h. 

It is moving at a speed of 20 kph, with the direction of 165˚ above the equator, when portrayed on a flat map of the Earth. 

a) Write h in component form.

[2 marks]

The hurricane makes landfall. Its movement is now modelled by vector l, \(\left( \frac{15\sqrt{3}}{2}\mathbf{\text{i}},\mathbf{\ }\frac{15}{2}\mathbf{j} \right)\).

b) Find the amount by which the hurricanes speed has decreased and state the hurricanes new direction.

[3 marks]

Increasing Rainfall

As the atmosphere warms, the air holds more water vapour, and this could lead to more intense rainfall events, resulting in an increased flood risk.  In this question, assume every year has 365 days.

The graph shows how the average rainfall (in mm/day) on a rain day at Falmer, Sussex, England has varied with time.

increasing rainfall

The individual points on the graph show the observed average rainfall in mm/day.

a) What was the observed average rainfall  on a rain day in 2000? Give your answer in mm/day.

[1 mark]

b) In an unrealistic model, a student presumes that every day that year was a rain day. Using this information and your answer to (a) find the total amount of rain that fell in that year. Give your answer in metres, to 2 significant figures.

[2 marks]

For the next questions refer to the line of best fit.

c) Calculate the percentage increase in average rainfall between the years 1939 and 1998.

[3 marks]

d) Calculate the percentage increase in the amount of rainfall between the years 1910 and 1920, and the years 2000 and 2010.

[4 Marks]