We are delighted that the DfE have published the results of the 2023/ 2024 Climate Literacy Survey of school leavers (year 11 students), which builds on the initial survey we developed in 2022. Together with an expert group of Society members, we supported the development of the additional 50 questions which were included in the survey this year and we also contributed to the analysis of the data collected.
UNESCO’s Greening Curriculum guidance states that high quality climate education should develop an “action-oriented, holistic, scientifically accurate, justice-driven and lifelong learning approach to climate change”.
This survey is a very important piece of evidence about the state of climate awareness amongst our young people, as well as the key gaps in the climate education they are currently receiving.
One clear message that has emerged from the survey every year, is how poorly the 1.5°C/ 2°C key climate goals are understood, as many respondents thought that the climate had already warmed more than this and most failed to select the correct definition.
Related to this, the concept of ‘Net Zero’ is very poorly understood. As this is a phrase which is in widespread use, from politicians to schools, employers and the media, lack of understanding of it is both surprising and concerning.
Unsurprisingly, there is a correlation between those school leavers who think that climate change will affect them directly and those who are concerned about climate change.
In designing climate education and communication strategies, we rightly consider the need to avoid developing climate anxiety. However, the survey shows that, although most school leavers are ‘fairly concerned’ about climate change more are ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ concerned about climate change than are ‘very concerned’. We should therefore make sure that our focus is on making young people ‘concerned and hopeful’ as only this will lead to effective individual and collective climate action.
One important way to do this is through demonstrating the relevance of climate change to young people, their communities and careers. However, the data collected in the survey showed very low awareness of climate change in the UK, including projected impacts as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies already in place or needed, as well as the cost benefits of mitigation. This will be directly relevant to school leavers’ awareness of the green careers and wider climate action available to them.
A significant proportion do not appreciate that future global warming can still be limited or avoided, highlighting an opportunity for increasing ‘hope’ in climate action amongst young people. Similarly, there was low awareness of the extent of existing renewable energy production in the UK – again missing messages about hope and green careers.
Some specific issues related to the current National Curriculum in England were highlighted by the survey. For example, respondents had poor awareness of the fact that the expansion of water as it warms has contributed roughly as much to sea level rise as the melting of ice. This argues for the need for a curriculum which encourages the application of knowledge and understanding (in this case, that liquids expand when they are heated) to real world contexts or across subjects (i.e. from science to geography).
Another example relates to the current KS3/ 4 geography curriculum where the disproportionate amount of time devoted to teaching past climate change and in particular the Milankovitch cycles seems to have led to respondents overestimating the impact of natural forcing mechanisms on recent climate change.
A concerning finding from the survey relates to perception of the level of scientific consensus on climate change, with most respondents thinking agreement amongst scientists is significantly lower than it is. This potentially relates to the use of the ‘evaluate’ command word in geography assessments, which necessitates students to present arguments from both sides even if, in reality, the debate is essentially one sided.
While most school leavers recall having been taught about climate change, only just over half remember having covered it in their last year at school when all should have encountered it in GCSE science.
However, reassuringly, the responses indicated that students place a relatively high level of trust in their science teachers as sources of climate change information. This reinforces the need for teachers to have the time and support to keep their own subject knowledge up to date and relevant.
In delivering high quality climate education and communication, we need to be very careful to avoid confusion between climate change mitigation strategies and other sustainability issues. The data collected in the survey demonstrated confusion in particular relating to the impact of the production and use of plastics.
Related to this, there was low awareness of adaptation and mitigation strategies generally, and in particular of effective mitigation actions. The impacts of keeping pets and eating meat on greenhouse gas emissions are generally underestimated whereas the impact of switching lights off and recycling (from the point of view of greenhouse gas emissions) is overestimated. Whether or not a focus on personal carbon footprints (as opposed to that of products, services or organisations) is helpful, this potentially reflects the impact of decades of teaching the ‘easier to handle’ aspects of sustainability, particularly in primary schools.
Climate justice recognises the fact that the people and countries most vulnerable to climate change are often not the ones who have done the most to cause it. Respondents indicated a good awareness of which countries are currently emitting most greenhouse gas, but less awareness of per capita or historical emissions. Similarly, there was limited understanding of regional variations in future temperature changes and their impacts.
The current curriculum review in England may provide an opportunity to improve the climate education delivered in schools.
As the DfE will no longer be funding the delivery of this piece of work, we, the RMetS, plan to run the survey ourselves in all four nations of the UK in the 2024/ 2025 academic year and annually thereafter, in order to track the impact of any changes in curriculum or education policy over time. We collected some baseline data in Scotland and Wales in 2024/ 2025.
Summary of the report’s findings
- Just over half of respondents (55%) remembered learning about climate change recently, stating they were aged 15-16 years when they were last taught about it in a lesson at school.
- The majority of respondents ‘didn’t know’ (31%) or overestimated (52%) the extent of global warming since 1850.
- Respondents correctly indicated that natural changes are generally the least impactful (46%) on global warming. However, there was an overestimation of the contribution from transport (46% thought it contributed more than it does) and disposal of plastic waste (49% thought it contributed more than it does) and a corresponding underestimation of the role of industry and deforestation, agriculture and other land use changes.
- More than half of the sample (54%) indicated some concern about climate change.
- Almost half of respondents (49%) appreciated that climate change will impact them personally, with 11% expecting a “great deal” of impact and 38% indicating quite a bit.
- Respondents showed a good understanding of the difference between weather and climate and of the definition of climate change.
- When exploring the causes of global climate variability, respondents tended to overestimate the impact of changes in the Earth’s orbit, but generally appreciated the impact of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There was low awareness of the role of large-scale weather patterns.
- Carbon dioxide and methane were well recognised as greenhouse gases, water vapour and nitrous oxide less well.
- Oil and coal were well recognised as fossil fuels, natural gas less well.
- Whilst respondents demonstrated a good awareness of which countries are currently emitting most greenhouse gases, there was less understanding of historical emissions or per capita emissions.
- Burning fossil fuels and deforestation are well recognised as sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), however, cement and decomposition were less well recognised.
- Respondents demonstrated a good understanding that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased over the past 500 years, with 83% correctly identifying an increase.
- The majority of respondents (61%) correctly identified livestock as a major source of methane (CH4). However, there was lower awareness of other major sources of methane including landfill and waste, wetlands and rice cultivation.
- Whilst respondents were aware of the different sources of greenhouse gases, there was also confusion between methane and carbon dioxide and their respective sources.
- Only 18% of respondents correctly identified that over 80% of global climate change since the industrial revolution has been caused by people.
- There was a good understanding that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the main contributing factor impacting the Earth’s temperature.
- Respondents presented a variety of perspectives on the stability of the Earth’s climate system, with most recognising its gradual nature (35% gradual, 24 threshold, 17% fragile).
- There was a good awareness of common indicators of a warming climate such as melting glaciers (79%) and rising sea levels (74%), as well as the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.
- Awareness of geographical variations in future temperature changes and their impacts was weaker.
- While respondents demonstrated awareness of the general vulnerability of countries to climate change, they often lack an understanding of how these vulnerabilities vary by region.
- The majority of respondents (51%) correctly identified the correct definition of adaptation to climate change, but only 34% correctly identified the correct definition of mitigation.
- Larger numbers consistently responded that they didn’t know what mitigation is than indicated that they don’t know what adaptation is.
- The majority of respondents correctly identified planting trees in towns and cities (60%) as an adaptation strategy. However, fewer (48%) identified building flood barriers and only a quarter (25%) recognised installing window shades as an adaptation strategy.
- Related to this, the data reveals a tendency for school leavers to think that mitigation strategies are adaptation strategies, as well as a low general awareness or understanding of mitigation strategies.
- Almost a quarter of respondents indicated that they thought that global temperatures would keep rising if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases were halted, implying low awareness that global warming can still be mitigated.
- Only one in five (20%) of respondents were able to identify the correct meaning of ‘net zero’ which is a term widely used in the media and across a diverse range of organisations and employers, whilst twice as many respondents indicated that they did not know (40%). Nearly a third (31%) stated that they didn’t know what the 2°C climate change target was and fewer than one in five (17%) correctly identified it as referring to a global average temperature increase above pre-industrial levels.
- Whilst only 6% of respondents said that they didn’t know what a zero carbon footprint was, there was a general underestimation of the impact of diet or keeping pets and an overestimation of the impact of recycling on greenhouse gas emissions.
- Half of those sampled (50%) correctly identified carbon capture and storage as the ‘process of trapping emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) and storing it securely’, 21% recognised it as ‘a way of mitigating climate change’ and only 10% were aware that it is part of the UK’s net zero strategy.
- Whilst over half of respondents recognised that agriculture could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most school leavers did not recognise that a broad range of other industries could also do so.
- Around a third of respondents (34%) correctly identified that the UK climate will become warmer and wetter during winters as the global climate warms.
- Almost three quarters (74%) of respondents correctly identified that the UK climate will become hotter and drier during summers as the global climate warms.
- The majority (64%) of respondents correctly identified ‘melting glaciers and ice sheets’ as contributors to relative sea level rise around the UK. However, far fewer correctly identified ‘Expansion of sea water as it warms’ (35%).
- There was generally good awareness of climate change risks in the UK, particularly of coastal flooding and extreme summer heat.
- Only a third of respondents (33%) correctly recognised that it will cost more for the UK to adapt to climate change impacts compared to implementing policies to limit climate change. A higher proportion, 45%, thought that it will cost more for the UK to implement globally agreed policies to limit climate change.
- One in 11 respondents (9%) correctly indicated that all of the industries suggested will have to adapt due to the impact that climate change is having on their business. Agriculture (57%), transport (54%) and food supply (52%) were selected by the majority of school leavers.
- The majority of respondents indicated a high awareness of solar (76%) as a source of electricity, potentially demonstrating that they appreciated that the solar panels they see on house roofs contribute to the UK’s energy mix. Awareness was lower for other renewables such as offshore wind, nuclear fission, hydroelectric, biomass and on-shore wind.
- The majority of respondents (74%) overestimated the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity and underestimated the contribution of renewables to UK electricity generation (72%).
- Only 22% of respondents thought that between 80-100% of scientists agree on human-caused climate change and 35% thought that fewer than 60% of scientists are in agreement.
- The data shows that 35% of respondents correctly identified the UNFCCC’s role in global climate policy and 22% correctly identified the IPCC’s role.
- Respondents place a comparatively high level of trust in science teachers (76%) and news sources such as the BBC (58%) for information about global warming, while expressing lower trust in sources including social media (33%), the Prime Minister (26%) and tabloid newspapers (21%).
