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Can you predict when it is going to rain where you are?

Using the Met Office rainfall radar, see who can predict when, to the nearest 10 minutes, it is next going to start raining. This will be more relevant on some days than on others!

Make a forecast for the coming weekend

We have simplified the weather forecasting competition which is run by Reading University Meteorology Department.
Ask your group to make a forecast for your school for the coming 24 hours. You could run this once a week for a term, and see who makes the best single forecast and who has the best cumulative score.
You can find a spreadsheet to record your group’s forecasts here. The spreadsheet is set up to calculate points once you have input the actual observations.
You can either use your school’s automatic weather station to evaluate the predictions, or the nearest Met Office WOW observations.

Instructions:

You are required to predict the following variables:

Maximum Temperature (0900 – 1800 tomorrow) and Minimum Temperature
(1800 today – 0900 tomorrow)

These should be forecast to an accuracy of 0.1 °C. The scoring system is given below.
Degrees difference Points
0.0 – 0.5 4
0.6 – 1.0 3
1.1 – 2.0 2
2.1 – 3.0 1
3.1 – 5.0 0
5.1 – 7.0 -1
7.1 – 9.0 -2
> 9.0 -3

Humidity at 0900 tomorrow
This should be forecast to an accuracy of 1%. The scoring system is given below.

% difference Points
0 – 2 4
3 – 5 3
5 – 7 2
7 – 10 1
10 – 15 0
15 – 20 -1
20 – 25 -2
> 25 -3

Rainfall (1800 today – 1800 tomorrow)
This should be forecast to an accuracy of 1 mm and will be scored according to this equation:

x = 100 (actual – guess) % ( MAX(actual,guess) + 5 )

The scores are calculated using this table:

x Points
x = 0 5
0 < x ≤5 4
5 < x ≤ 15 3
15 < x ≤ 25 2
25 < x ≤ 35 1
35 < x ≤ 50 0
50 < x ≤ 60 -1
60 < x ≤ 70 -2 x > 70 -3

Start exploring

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