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How will the Frequency of Hot Days Change?


How will the United Kingdoms Frequency of Hot Days Change?

graphic 2060
graphic 2090
  1. These two maps show the percentage of hot days expected during the 2060s and 2090s given high carbon dioxide emissions through the century (scenario A2).
  2. A hot day is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days in 1970-1999. So, in 1970– 1999, you would have expected 1 in 10 days to be hot. If the map shading indicates that more than 10% of days are hot, then there has been an increase in the number of hot days.
  3. In areas shaded deep red, every day will be a hot day. Yellow areas will have 30% hot days.
  4. The number in the centre of each grid box is the number of hot days we expect; the smaller numbers in the upper and lower corners give the range of numbers of hot days that might occur.
  5. The frequency of hot days has increased since 1960 in every season – especially summer (JJA).
  6. Hot days will become more frequent in all areas of the UK.
  7. Hot days will occur on 9-25% of days by 2060s and 14-35% of days by 2090s. The fastest increases will be in the summer (JJA).

McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lizcano, G. (2009) Climate Change Country Profiles – UK. Oxford University School of Geography and Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Report commissioned by the British Council, RMetS, RGS-IBG for www.climate4classrooms.org

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